Oscar Predictions and Picks 2023

I love the Oscars. For the past six years, I have made it my goal to watch every single film nominated for an Oscar, and while it took me until today to do so, I’ve once again made that goal. This year I’m not posting my non-nominated picks, but just assume I’d have Aftersun listed for all eligible categories. Now, in time for Sunday’s ceremony, here are my predictions and my personal picks for this year’s event.

Short Film, Live Action

My Prediction: Le Pupille
My Pick: The Red Suitcase

It’s hard to predict against a film that has major representation in this category, and Le Pupille’s Disney backing as well as Alice Rohrwacher behind the helm should see it an easy win. If I had a vote though, I’d be going for The Red Suitcase, one of the best tension building exercises of the year.

Short Film, Animated

My Prediction: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse
My Pick: My Year of Dicks

Similar to the Live action category, it’s hard to predict against Idris Elba’s voice acting in The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse even though I found it overly saccharine, but My Year of Dicks was a really fun watch and gets my nod.

Short Film, Documentary

My Prediction: Stranger at the Gate
My Pick: Haulout

Much like the other short categories, I’m assuming the award goes to the film with the biggest name (Stranger at the Gate is executive produced by Malala). My personal favorite however is Haulout, an interesting take on the climate documentary.

Visual Effects

My Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
My Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

I genuinely can’t imagine leaving the theater after seeing Avatar: The Way of Water and not asserting that it has the best visual effects of the year.


My Prediction: Elvis
My Pick: Babylon

While I loved the classic Hollywood cosutmes from the Babylon, betting against Catherine Martin (Elvis) is never a good bet.

Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: Elvis
My Pick: Elvis

The best actor race plays out in makeup and hairstyling as well as both actors find themselves covered in prosthetics during their respective movies. I’m leaning towards an Elvis win as that’s the more beloved film, and the aging of Austin Butler will likely garnish more votes.

Production Design

My Prediction: Babylon
My Pick: Babylon

While Babylon may have been met with lukewarm responses, it seems to be a favorite for the production design award with its recreation of classic Hollywood.


My Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

This race may end up being closer than most people think, but I do believe Top Gun: Maverick will pull out this (and maybe only this) Oscar, even though All Quiet on the Western Front is my favorite and is nipping at its heels.

Original Song

My Prediction: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
My Pick: Naatu Naatu (RRR)

I normally hate picking this category, as I feel that I have a good eye for what makes a film good, but this category is about the quality of the song. That said, this year is an obvious pick as RRR will win the award for it wonderful Naatu Naatu which it’s performance should be a highlight of the evening.

Original Score

My Prediction: Babylon
My Pick: Babylon

I know it’s been losing ground and hasn’t won all the precursors, but I don’t want to live in a world where Justen Hurwitz’s score doesn’t win.


My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once

As we get closer and closer to Oscar night, it really appears that Everything Everywhere All At Once will walk away from the night with quite the haul of gold statues and editing will be the hallmark that it’s happening.


My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

All Quiet on the Western Front is an extremely beautiful film and should run away with the Oscar over Elvis.

Documentary Feature

My Prediction: Navalny
My Pick: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Navalny hits well in the current cultural zeitgeist as the war in Ukraine passes the 1-year mark and the discontent with Russia remains at an all time high. I personally loved Laura Poitras’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but it’s odds of winning are very low given the narrative.

Animated Feature

My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
My Pick: Turning Red

The year that the Disney/ Pixar monopoly on this category will finally come to an end, is the only year that I wish it would win. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is a beautiful dark fairytale that is a deserving winner, but I loved the unabashed period allegory that was Pixar’s Turning Red.

International Film

My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Pick: The Quiet Girl

This category is getting to be one of the easiest to predict. The picture that receives a bunch of nominations outside of this category will be the one to win, and this year that goes to All Quiet on the Western Front. And while I did very much enjoy that film. Ireland’s pastoral The Quiet Girl moved me in ways that the war film was incapable of.

Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: Women Talking
My Pick: Women Talking

I really loved Women Talking and was saddened by it’s relative poor performance at this year’s Oscar nominations (though the best picture nod was a welcome surprise). Sarah Polley’s screenplay was the highlight of the film and should result in her winning the Oscar.

Original Screenplay

My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once

With a heavy emphasis on the word “original” Everything Everywhere All At Once will continue its domination of the night by winning a screenplay award.

Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Even though he didn’t win all of the precursors (what was that BAFTAs?), the most obvious award of the night goes to Ke Huy Quan for his wonderful performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

I just don’t see a Marvel film winning an acting award, and I think Bassett should be happy with just the nomination given how much of a long shot it was. With her win at SAG I think Jamie Lee Curtis is in the best position to win this category even though I personally think Kerry Condon was the best part of Banshees and would love to see her win.

Lead Actor

My Prediction: Austin Butler (Elvis)
My Pick: Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

The 3-way race between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser (my personal choice of Paul Mescal was never in contention) finally comes to an end, and while at many times this looked like Fraser’s to lose, I think the general animosity towards The Whale will end up being his downfall, and the much more loved Elvis will see Austin Butler his first win.

Lead Actress

My Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

The hardest category to pick this year is Lead Actress where Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett are locked in a 2-horse race for the gold. While I and I believe the majority of Oscar voters believe that Blanchett’s performance was superior, Yeoh being a part of the Best Picture winner (spoiler) and having various narratives on her side will I believe push her over the edge to the win, but I won’t be the least surprised to hear Blanchett’s name called.


My Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Todd Field (TÁR)

When Daniels won the DGA, they assured themselves this win. The film is a glorious piece of direction balancing the originality of its script with some spectacular performances. I personally would have voted for TÁR as Todd Field created a deep nuanced feature about the current world, but I don’t begrudge the Daniels their win.


My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: TÁR

Capping off an award heavy night will be Everything Everywhere All At Once winning the night’s final and biggest award. Some people are trying to predict Top Gun: Maverick as a black sheep contender, but with EEAAO winning PGA, SAG, WGA, and DGA it is all but impossible for anything else to win including my personal favorite TÁR which much like director will lose to the Daniels behemoth.

Oscar Nomination Prediction 2023

The Oscar nominations go live early Tuesday morning, so in the tradition of online movie reviewers, I’m giving my predictions on who will see the nomination.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front has proven to be the international film that will make this year’s list after it’s stellar performance at the BAFTAs. After that, it’s only the 10 slot with a big question mark. My heart wants Women Talking, but my brain thinks this year women directors will find themselves shut out.

  1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. The Fabelmans
  4. TÁR
  5. Elvis
  6. Top Gun: Maverick
  7. Avatar: The Way of Water
  8. All Quiet on the Western Front
  9. The Whale
  10. Triangle of Sadness

Best Director – The top 4 are all locks, and again after the BAFTA nomination performance, it’s hard to count out Edward Berger as the final slot. Another unfortunate major category without a women included (sorry Sara Polley and Charlotte Welles).

  1. Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. Todd Field – TÁR
  3. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
  4. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
  5. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Actress

After the big 2 up top, the rest of the slots could give. Deadwyler gave a performance more than worthy of her slot, but the question is how many people saw Til? Michelle Williams used to be a lock, but some poor showings in prior awards nominations puts her on the chopping block, but I assume we’ll see her on Tuesday morning. With the last slot, I’m guessing Viola Davis will get in over Ana de Armas in the reviled Blonde, and Margot Robbie in Babylon (which would be my personal pick for the 5th slot).

  1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR
  2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  3. Danielle Deadwyler – Til
  4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
  5. Viola Davis – The Woman King

Best Actor – Another category with 4 slots locked up, the question comes to the 5th slot. While most outlets are predicting a Tom Cruise nomination for Top Gun: Maverick, I feel this will be the lone acknowledgement for the best film of the year with Paul Mescal sneaking in for Aftersun.

  1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale
  2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. Austin Butler – Elvis
  4. Bill Nighy – Living
  5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress – An interesting batch this year, I’d call the first 4 relatively safe, but anything could happen in this category. The big question mark is who will take that last slot with Stephanie Hsu attempting to get Everything Everywhere All At Once two nominations in this category, but I’m going with Dolly De Leon from Triangle of Sadness.

  1. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
  2. Hong Chau – The Whale
  3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  4. Angel Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  5. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan is the easiest bet for a win now. The Banshees of Inisherin look to be a lock to get 2 nominations in with Gleeson and Keoghan both looking obvious. The main question in this category is the 5th slot, which will be a large step down from the top 4. It’s looking now like Eddie Redmayne (who I still secretly can’t stand after his The Danish Girl performance) will provide The Good Nurse with it’s only nomination of the night.

  1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. Barry Keoghan – the Banshees of Inisherin
  4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
  5. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Best International Feature Film – An interesting category this year, The top 3 slots are pretty much a given (and their order is as well). I’m predicting a bit of an upset with Corsage, but I think a stellar performance from Vicky Krieps will propel the film into the conversation.

  1. All Quiet on the Wester Front
  2. Decision to Leave
  3. Argentina, 1985
  4. The Quiet Girl
  5. Corsage

Best Animated Feature

Another category with 4 slots locked in. The 5th slot could go to a variety of options, but I’m putting faith in GKIDS to get a foreign film into the category with Inu-Oh (it helps that I really connected with the film). I see it just beating out Wendell & Wild for the slot.

  1. Tuillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  2. Turning Red
  3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
  4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  5. Inu-Oh

Best Documentary Feature – The real question with this category is whether the voting block will break their unofficial veto on musical documentaries to nominate the wonderfully innovative Moonage Daydream. If it doesn’t get in look to The Territory or Descendant to fill the last slot.

  1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
  2. Fire of Love
  3. All that Breathes
  4. Navalny
  5. Moonage Daydream

Best Original Screenplay – All of my predictions for this category show up above in my best picture guesses, with Elvis being the lone film on the outside looking out (it is much more about the imagery than the writing). It’s hard to imagine any other film breaking into this category with Babylon and Aftersun looking quite a way up from the 6 and 7 slots.

  1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. The Fabelmans
  4. TÁR
  5. Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

The category for Sarah Polley’s revenge after being snubbed in the above categories. All Quiet on the Western Front will continue it’s post BAFTA dominance as an international film. The 5th slot will likely go to Living even though She Said found a surprising BAFTA nomination.

  1. Women Talking
  2. The Whale
  3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. Living

Best Cinematography – This is the hardest category to predict with the precursor awards being all over the place. Top Gun: Maverick is the only lock with the other 4 being any of about a dozen options. I leaned closer to the films that would receive a bunch of nominations, but don’t be surprised if films like Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Empire of Light, and The Batman find their way in.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. All Quiet on the Western Front
  3. Avatar: The Way of Water
  4. The Fabelmans
  5. Elvis

Best Editing – Similar to Cinematography, this category is pretty wide open. The top 2 are obvious but after that it opens wide up. Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Fabelmans all fall into the category of most-editing equals best-editing which Academy voters tend to fall for.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  3. Elvis
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. The Fabelmans

Best Production Design

The first category that the commercial flop though visually stunning Babylon has a real chance in, and it is a frontrunner.  The rest of the category is filled with Oscar favorites for other categories.

  1. Babylon
  2. Avatar: The Way of Water
  3. Elvis
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. The Fabelmans

Best Sound – The consolidation of the sound category makes it much easier to guess, and this year the top 5 seem pretty solid, though I guess The Batman could sneak in if the Academy really takes to that film.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. Avatar: The Way of Water
  3. All Quiet on the Western Front
  4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects

The backlash on Marvel movies appears to be strong in this branch this year between the VES and BAFTAs shutting out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Maddness. So that leaves the 5th slot wide open. I’m taking a wild guess on the slot and predicting an upset from Nope.

  1. Avatar: The Way of Water
  2. All Quiet on the Western Front
  3. Top Gun: Maverick
  4. The Batman
  5. Nope

Best Original Score – This is Justin Horowitz category to lose and finds Babylon locked for the top slot. My main question for this category goes to the last slot. John Williams may seem like the obvious pick for The Fabelmans, but I have to go with the most atmospheric and innovative score of the year in Volker Bertelmann’s work for All Quiet on the Western Front.

  1. Babylon
  2. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  3. Women Talking
  4. The Banshees of Inisherin
  5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design – Is now where I admit that I haven’t seen Black Panther: Wakanda Forever yet? Regardless I have to go with the expects and put this as the front runner. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris gets in with the “only for costumes” slot that pop up once every year or two, and sits around some heavy Oscar contenders. As mediocre as it was, don’t be surprised if Amsterdam finds its way into one of these slots on Tuesday.

  1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  2. Elvis
  3. Babylon
  4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
  5. The Woman King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling tends to be all about the prosthetics and my high contenders all make substantial use of them. Crimes of the Future might be a long shot at my number 5, but I just feel in my ear covered body that it will get in.

  1. The Whale
  2. Elvis
  3. Amsterdam
  4. The Batman
  5. Crimes of the Future

Best Original Song – Time for my standard “I’m not a music critic” stance, but this year’s list of songs seem pretty easy to guess with the RRR sensation “Naatu Naatu” looking like an easy frontrunner. Diane Warren will continue her undeniable streak at the Oscars and will force me to watch a film I’ve never heard of before in Tell it Like a Woman.

  1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
  2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
  3. “Lift Me up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  4. “Applause” – Tell it Like a Woman
  5. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Narrative Short/ Animated Short/ Documentary Short – I haven’t seen these films and can’t make a comment.

A 2021 Film Journey: Day 115

Much of my movie viewing this year had been building up to tonight’s Academy Awards. I posted my personal predications and picks earlier this afternoon and then prepared myself for the film industry’s biggest night. The three-and-a-half-hour ceremony took the place of my movie watching for the evening.

The 93rd Academy Awards

How to watch 2021 Oscars: live stream Academy Awards free and from anywhere  | TechRadar

Where to begin? I guess first and foremost, I will address the winners. They were fine to good. My Octopus Teacher winning for documentary is my biggest gripe, but all in all the Oscars went to good choices if not what I would consider the best choice. Seeing Chloé Zhao become only the second woman to win best director and be the second woman helmed film to win best picture (both were previously done by Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker) was heartwarming. My personal favorite actress Carey Mulligan once again failed to win, but I cannot begrudge the academy for choosing Frances McDormand. If all I did was read the winners the next morning, I would have little to say.

The ceremony itself was a mess. The Academy’s continued decision to go without a host after the Kevin Hart controversy reached its pinnacle this year as the ceremony was completely without guidance. While the bad jokes can get tiresome after some time, surely there must be a middle ground between too many bad jokes and a ceremony that is nothing but presentations. When there was finally a reprieve with a name the tune segment three quarters of the way through the film, it was a welcome reprieve, but one that came much too late.

And then there was the giant unforced error of the final three awards. The producers not knowing the results took a huge gamble and put the acting awards after best picture. They likely did so in the assumption that Chadwick Boseman would win posthumously, and they could end the ceremony on an uplifting moment for him. When that did not happen, the result was the most anticlimactic ending in Oscar history as Anthony Hopkins was neither present nor had a proxy to accept the award for him and the ceremony went unceremoniously to closing credits. Chloé Zhao’s accomplishments winning best picture were overshadowed by the mess that followed, and Hopkins who gave arguably the greatest performance of his life will forever be unjustifiably remembered as the man who stole Chadwick Boseman’s Oscar.