Oscar Nomination Prediction 2023

The Oscar nominations go live early Tuesday morning, so in the tradition of online movie reviewers, I’m giving my predictions on who will see the nomination.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front has proven to be the international film that will make this year’s list after it’s stellar performance at the BAFTAs. After that, it’s only the 10 slot with a big question mark. My heart wants Women Talking, but my brain thinks this year women directors will find themselves shut out.

  1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. The Fabelmans
  4. TÁR
  5. Elvis
  6. Top Gun: Maverick
  7. Avatar: The Way of Water
  8. All Quiet on the Western Front
  9. The Whale
  10. Triangle of Sadness

Best Director – The top 4 are all locks, and again after the BAFTA nomination performance, it’s hard to count out Edward Berger as the final slot. Another unfortunate major category without a women included (sorry Sara Polley and Charlotte Welles).

  1. Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. Todd Field – TÁR
  3. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
  4. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
  5. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Actress

After the big 2 up top, the rest of the slots could give. Deadwyler gave a performance more than worthy of her slot, but the question is how many people saw Til? Michelle Williams used to be a lock, but some poor showings in prior awards nominations puts her on the chopping block, but I assume we’ll see her on Tuesday morning. With the last slot, I’m guessing Viola Davis will get in over Ana de Armas in the reviled Blonde, and Margot Robbie in Babylon (which would be my personal pick for the 5th slot).

  1. Cate Blanchett – TÁR
  2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  3. Danielle Deadwyler – Til
  4. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
  5. Viola Davis – The Woman King

Best Actor – Another category with 4 slots locked up, the question comes to the 5th slot. While most outlets are predicting a Tom Cruise nomination for Top Gun: Maverick, I feel this will be the lone acknowledgement for the best film of the year with Paul Mescal sneaking in for Aftersun.

  1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale
  2. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. Austin Butler – Elvis
  4. Bill Nighy – Living
  5. Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress – An interesting batch this year, I’d call the first 4 relatively safe, but anything could happen in this category. The big question mark is who will take that last slot with Stephanie Hsu attempting to get Everything Everywhere All At Once two nominations in this category, but I’m going with Dolly De Leon from Triangle of Sadness.

  1. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
  2. Hong Chau – The Whale
  3. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  4. Angel Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  5. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan is the easiest bet for a win now. The Banshees of Inisherin look to be a lock to get 2 nominations in with Gleeson and Keoghan both looking obvious. The main question in this category is the 5th slot, which will be a large step down from the top 4. It’s looking now like Eddie Redmayne (who I still secretly can’t stand after his The Danish Girl performance) will provide The Good Nurse with it’s only nomination of the night.

  1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. Barry Keoghan – the Banshees of Inisherin
  4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
  5. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

Best International Feature Film – An interesting category this year, The top 3 slots are pretty much a given (and their order is as well). I’m predicting a bit of an upset with Corsage, but I think a stellar performance from Vicky Krieps will propel the film into the conversation.

  1. All Quiet on the Wester Front
  2. Decision to Leave
  3. Argentina, 1985
  4. The Quiet Girl
  5. Corsage

Best Animated Feature

Another category with 4 slots locked in. The 5th slot could go to a variety of options, but I’m putting faith in GKIDS to get a foreign film into the category with Inu-Oh (it helps that I really connected with the film). I see it just beating out Wendell & Wild for the slot.

  1. Tuillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  2. Turning Red
  3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
  4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  5. Inu-Oh

Best Documentary Feature – The real question with this category is whether the voting block will break their unofficial veto on musical documentaries to nominate the wonderfully innovative Moonage Daydream. If it doesn’t get in look to The Territory or Descendant to fill the last slot.

  1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
  2. Fire of Love
  3. All that Breathes
  4. Navalny
  5. Moonage Daydream

Best Original Screenplay – All of my predictions for this category show up above in my best picture guesses, with Elvis being the lone film on the outside looking out (it is much more about the imagery than the writing). It’s hard to imagine any other film breaking into this category with Babylon and Aftersun looking quite a way up from the 6 and 7 slots.

  1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  2. The Banshees of Inisherin
  3. The Fabelmans
  4. TÁR
  5. Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

The category for Sarah Polley’s revenge after being snubbed in the above categories. All Quiet on the Western Front will continue it’s post BAFTA dominance as an international film. The 5th slot will likely go to Living even though She Said found a surprising BAFTA nomination.

  1. Women Talking
  2. The Whale
  3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. Living

Best Cinematography – This is the hardest category to predict with the precursor awards being all over the place. Top Gun: Maverick is the only lock with the other 4 being any of about a dozen options. I leaned closer to the films that would receive a bunch of nominations, but don’t be surprised if films like Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Empire of Light, and The Batman find their way in.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. All Quiet on the Western Front
  3. Avatar: The Way of Water
  4. The Fabelmans
  5. Elvis

Best Editing – Similar to Cinematography, this category is pretty wide open. The top 2 are obvious but after that it opens wide up. Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Fabelmans all fall into the category of most-editing equals best-editing which Academy voters tend to fall for.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  3. Elvis
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. The Fabelmans

Best Production Design

The first category that the commercial flop though visually stunning Babylon has a real chance in, and it is a frontrunner.  The rest of the category is filled with Oscar favorites for other categories.

  1. Babylon
  2. Avatar: The Way of Water
  3. Elvis
  4. All Quiet on the Western Front
  5. The Fabelmans

Best Sound – The consolidation of the sound category makes it much easier to guess, and this year the top 5 seem pretty solid, though I guess The Batman could sneak in if the Academy really takes to that film.

  1. Top Gun: Maverick
  2. Avatar: The Way of Water
  3. All Quiet on the Western Front
  4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
  5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects

The backlash on Marvel movies appears to be strong in this branch this year between the VES and BAFTAs shutting out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Maddness. So that leaves the 5th slot wide open. I’m taking a wild guess on the slot and predicting an upset from Nope.

  1. Avatar: The Way of Water
  2. All Quiet on the Western Front
  3. Top Gun: Maverick
  4. The Batman
  5. Nope

Best Original Score – This is Justin Horowitz category to lose and finds Babylon locked for the top slot. My main question for this category goes to the last slot. John Williams may seem like the obvious pick for The Fabelmans, but I have to go with the most atmospheric and innovative score of the year in Volker Bertelmann’s work for All Quiet on the Western Front.

  1. Babylon
  2. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  3. Women Talking
  4. The Banshees of Inisherin
  5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design – Is now where I admit that I haven’t seen Black Panther: Wakanda Forever yet? Regardless I have to go with the expects and put this as the front runner. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris gets in with the “only for costumes” slot that pop up once every year or two, and sits around some heavy Oscar contenders. As mediocre as it was, don’t be surprised if Amsterdam finds its way into one of these slots on Tuesday.

  1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  2. Elvis
  3. Babylon
  4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
  5. The Woman King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling tends to be all about the prosthetics and my high contenders all make substantial use of them. Crimes of the Future might be a long shot at my number 5, but I just feel in my ear covered body that it will get in.

  1. The Whale
  2. Elvis
  3. Amsterdam
  4. The Batman
  5. Crimes of the Future

Best Original Song – Time for my standard “I’m not a music critic” stance, but this year’s list of songs seem pretty easy to guess with the RRR sensation “Naatu Naatu” looking like an easy frontrunner. Diane Warren will continue her undeniable streak at the Oscars and will force me to watch a film I’ve never heard of before in Tell it Like a Woman.

  1. “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
  2. “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
  3. “Lift Me up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  4. “Applause” – Tell it Like a Woman
  5. “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Narrative Short/ Animated Short/ Documentary Short – I haven’t seen these films and can’t make a comment.

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