
I love the Oscars. For the past five years, I have made it my goal to watch every single film nominated for an Oscar, and this year I finished with a week to spare. In time for Sunday’s ceremony, here are my predictions and my personal picks for this year’s event.
Visual Effects

My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: Dune; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
A lot of the technical awards are going to be easy Dune picks and predictions. The film is beautiful and much of that comes from the visual effects.
Costume

My Prediction: Cruella
My Pick: Cruella; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
While I didn’t love Cruella as a film, the creative costuming throughout the film, especially as Cruella was making her name are fetes to behold and are a good choice for a winner.
Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
My Pick: Cruella; Would I pick a non-nominated film? Yes – Spencer
Makeup and Hairstyling tends to be highly correlated with prosthetic usage, and while I think that trend will continue with The Eyes of Tammy Faye, I don’t believe the prosthetics looked especially convincing. I would personally recognize the unnominated Spencer for it’s excellent natural looks transforming Kristen Stewart into princess Diana.
Production Design

My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: Dune; Would I pick a non-nominated film? Yes – The French Dispatch
Another technical win that should be a sure thing for Dune, but in a year in which Wes Anderson directed a movie, it feels wrong not to give it to The French Dispatch.
Sound
My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: Dune; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Another easy to predict and well-deserved technical category for Dune to run away with.
Original Song
My Prediction: No Time to Die (No Time to Die)
My Pick: No Time to Die (No Time to Die); Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
I hate picking this category. I feel that I have a good eye for what makes a film good, but this category is about the quality of the song, the movie is an afterthought. That said, this year is a pretty easy pick of the most recent Bond themes, No Time To Die by Billie Eilish.
Original Score
My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: The Power of the Dog; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Jonny Greenwood’s other worldly scores are not the type that may resonate with the academy, but the mood inducing musical snippets were the perfect accompaniment for Jane Campion’s neo-western. Instead, I think the academy is much more likely to embrace the more standard Hans Zimmer score for Dune.
Editing
My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: The Power of the Dog; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Another technical award that I anticipate Dune walking away with at the end of the night, but I believe that The Power of the Dog has a much more subtle but effective editing technique. Every shot in the later film feels personally plucked to build the mood and accentuate each character.
Cinematography

My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: The Power of the Dog; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Similar to Editing, Cinematography is another technical category that will go to Dune, and not unwarrantedly, but I personally found more joy in the quieter craft work of The Power of the Dog.
Short Film, Live Action

My Prediction: The Long Goodbye
My Pick: The Dress; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
This category tends to go to the most heavy-handed message film, and The Long Goodbye fills that quota for the year. The Dress was the more nuanced film that I’d love to see win, but will sadly lose to the more forceful short.
Short Film, Animated

My Prediction: Robin Robin
My Pick: Bestia; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Robin Robin is a cute, animated, animal film and will likely win because of that. Bestia on the other hand asks much more of the audience but delivers a richer experience for those willing to meet the film where it is at.
Short Film, Documentary

My Prediction: Audible
My Pick: Audible; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Gold Derby may not agree with my prediction, but in the year of CODA I find it hard to believe that Audible, the short film about a deaf high school football team wouldn’t resonate with voting academy members. It doesn’t hurt that it is the best film of the bunch either.
Documentary Feature

My Prediction: Summer of Soul
My Pick: Flee; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Summer of Soul is an excellent concert documentary expertly edited to include historical context with amazing performances. The film is an masterwork of editing, but Flee is the stronger overall film.
Animated Feature

My Prediction: Encanto
My Pick: Flee; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
The Disney/ Pixar monopoly on this category has become a little ridiculous. Encanto was the best they put out this year and as such is the odds-on favorite to win, but Flee used the medium to tell a story that couldn’t be told any other way. The documentary telling the life story of a refugee was heartbreaking and would win from a fairer academy.
International Film

My Prediction: Drive My Car
My Pick: Drive My Car; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
In any other year, the wonderful The Worst Person in the World would be an easy frontrunner with its Best Original Screenplay nomination boosting its name recognition, but this year both the Academy and I will agree that Drive My Car is just a little bit better. It is hard to bet against any international film that also has a Best Picture nominee, and the slow burn meditation on grief will justifiably take home the award at the end of the night.
Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: CODA
My Pick: The Power of the Dog; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
The Power of the Dog is too subtle for its own good to win this category. The deliberate pacing that Campion uses in creating the slow burn drama shows incredible restraint and precision in screenwriting. Such finesse is likely to be overlooked in favor of the more traditional plot structure Sian Heder implements in CODA.
Original Screenplay

My Prediction: Belfast
My Pick: Licorice Pizza; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Belfast is a middling film that seems to have an unending supply of good graces in its corner. That support will once again block Paul Thomas Anderson from receiving his first Oscar for a tightly delivered coming of age comedy that deserved to have its screenplay recognized.
Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
My Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog); Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Early this season this award seemed to be a given for Smit-McPhee, but now everything points towards Troy Kotsur. Kotsur did a great job, but I feel like he was limited by the simplicity of the screenplay. Smit-McPhee on the other hand really got to show off his acting chops with the nuanced role of Peter Gordon in The Power of the Dog.
Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
My Pick: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog); Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
Ariana DeBose is the easiest prediction of the night. She has won everything up until now, and it will be no surprise when she takes home Oscar Gold. That said, I think Kiki’s performance in The Power of the Dog had an otherworldly quality to it that moved me more than any other supporting performance this year.
Lead Actor

My Prediction: Will Smith (King Richard)
My Pick: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog); Would I pick a non-nominated film? Yes – Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Will Smith seems to be running away with this award because like normal the Academy is confusing “best” with “most”. Smith’s Richard Williams is certainly the most acted performance of the year, and while it is not bad, it is not what I would choose as the best. For best I would personally vote for the much quieter performance by Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, or if an option the wonderfully emotional rendition of the titular Cyrano by Peter Dinklage.
Lead Actress

My Prediction: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
My Pick: Kristen Stewart (Spencer); Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
This category has been a mess to predict all award season. I personally believe Kristen Stewart put in the best performance (by quite a large margin) as the troubled Princess Diana on the verge of a nervous breakdown, and she seemed like the early frontrunner. After a series of nomination snubs however it seems more likely that another actress would take the win and treading lately is Jessica Chastain for the mediocre film The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Director

My Prediction: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
My Pick: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog); Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
While the winds have largely moved away from The Power of the Dog, and Campion’s speech at the Critics Choice Awards didn’t do her any help, this award is still going to go to Campion for her phenomenal directing work. The film succeeds primarily because of the controlled approach of Campion’s direction.
Picture

My Prediction: CODA
My Pick: Drive My Car; Would I pick a non-nominated film? No
I’m buying into the late surge that last weekend foretold and predicting a CODA win over The Power of The Dog. I think CODA is a really good film (I would rank it right in the middle of the best picture nominees), but it didn’t blow me away like a few films did this year. The film that left me speechless after viewing it, that I would have voted for best picture is the three-hour slow burn masterpiece that was Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car. That film’s deliberate pacing to contemplate grief will stick with me for years to come.