I love the Oscars. For the past eight years, I have made it my goal to watch every single film nominated for an Oscar, and this year I managed it with multiple weeks to spare. This season has been a wild ride of favorites and controversies, and while some of them have gone in my personal favor (Emelia Pérez dropping off of most categories is exactly what I wanted) others haven’t (The Brutalist), but regardless of where things land it has been an entertaining year to watch. Especially interesting this year is that there are very few locks going into the night which makes predicting difficult, but watching entertaining.

Short Film, Live Action

My Prediction: A Lien
My Pick: I’m Not a Robot

When I left the theater, A Lien was both my prediction and my pick and while part of me still believes that, the dry humor of I’m Not a Robot has just grown in my estimation, and is definitely the one that I’m most likely to revisit. A Lien, however, should fit the zeitgeist of the current political climate, and while the shorts are never a sure thing, I believe it will win.

Short Film, Animated

My Prediction: Beautiful Men
My Pick: Wander to Wonder

Wander to Wonder was the clear-cut favorite for me, but my guess is that the film about small children show creatures who live past their creator’s demise will be too weird and vulgar for the average academy winner and that the more earnest Beautiful Men will be awarded Sunday night.

Short Film, Documentary

My Prediction: Incident
My Pick: Incident

The most outraged I’ve been in theaters excepting my pick and prediction for feature documentary, Incident is a miraculous piece of editing painting a picture of racist, homicidal police officers and their natural instinct to lie and cover-up even when they know they are being filmed.

Visual Effects

My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
My Pick: Avatar: Dune: Part Two

In the year of the monkey movies (Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Better Man, and Wicked), I’m leaning towards the sand worm movie. The first one won in 2022 and I think that the sequel will bring it home again in 2025.

Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: The Substance
My Pick: The Substance

Between the ever-withering Demi Moore, and the creation that is Monstro Elisasue, The Substance is loaded with the prosthetics that tend to convert into a win in this category.

Costumes

My Prediction: Wicked
My Pick: Nosferatu

While I didn’t especially care for Wicked, I don’t begrudge its near locked win for best costumes. I do personally prefer the vintage work for Nosferatu, but I’m fine with Wicked’s inevitable win.

Production Design

My Prediction: The Brutalist
My Pick: The Brutalist

While this is a really close category, I think a general rule of thumb for it is that if an architecture movie is nominated for production design, there is a good chance that it will win. When Attila (Alessandro Nivola) and László Tóth (Adrien Brody) open the bookshelves that László both designed and built, I believe that The Brutalist won this award.

Sound

My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
My Pick: Dune: Part Two

This category is heavily saturated with music-related films, and while I don’t think Emilia Pérez will end up splitting many of the votes from the others, I still think the most unique soundscape of Dune: Part Two should and will take this award.

Original Song

My Prediction: El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
My Pick: El Mal (Emilia Pérez)

While Emilia Pérez has for the most part become toxic to any awards consideration, this is one of two categories that I believe it will win. That means Diane Warren will once again fail to win a competitive Oscar as ‘The Journey’ (from the pretty awful film The Six Triple Eight) will likely come in second place.

Original Score

My Prediction: The Brutalist
My Pick: The Brutalist

I used to shout out films that I would pick that weren’t Oscar nominated, but stopped doing that a few years ago. That said, I’m going to call out the egregious snub that is Challengers missing out on this category. Don’t get me wrong, I do love the score to The Brutalist, and most years it would top my list. I just really think that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross deserved another win this year.

Editing

My Prediction: Conclave
My Pick: Conclave

Editing is often seen as a precursor for best picture, and it is what is going to keep that award interesting into late in the evening. Conclave has the most propulsion from its editing of any of the nominated films, and I believe will win, though if Anora is on its way to a sweep, it could upset here.

Cinematography

My Prediction: The Brutalist
My Pick: The Brutalist

Shot in glorious VistaVision, The Brutalist is the best looking film of the year and should win this category pretty easily, even with Maria winning the ASC award.

Documentary Feature

My Prediction: No Other Land
My Pick: No Other Land

No Other Land has won every precursor award for best documentary, and in a normal, just world this wouldn’t be contentious. That said, the Oscars came under a little heat last year after Jonathan Glazer’s speech calling for a stop to Isreal’s practices of apartheid and genocide, so I see a world where The Academy cowers from recognizing a film about that very struggle. However, without a clear cut second place, I don’t believe that this will end up happening, but if it does I, and much of filmsky will be irate.

Animated Feature

My Prediction: The Wild Robot
My Pick: Flow

Flow was my favorite animated film of the year, and while it did surge at the right time, I still feel like the more traditional studio film will win out. The Wild Robot is the best film that DreamWorks Animation has ever produced, so them winning for it will hopefully result in more quality from them moving forward.

International Film

My Prediction: I’m Still Here
My Pick: Flow

It’s amazing what five weeks can do to a race. With 13 nominations overall, it seemed impossible for anything other than Emilia Pérez to win it. Now after the controversy surround that film, this film is still a lock, but for the Brazilian film I’m Still Here instead.

Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: Conclave
My Pick: Conclave

The easier of the two screenplay categories, Conclave should win this without much competition as the other major players are all in original.

Original Screenplay

My Prediction: A Real Pain
My Pick: The Substance

Despite not getting a best picture nomination, I still believe that Jesse Eisenberg is likely to win this award for his A Real Pain script, but this is another category where if Anora is on its way to sweeping the ceremony it could upset here. My personal preference would be for the brash absurdity that is the screenplay for The Substance, but that winning seems rather unlikely.

Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Kieren Culkin (A Real Pain)
My Pick: Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

The least competitive of the acting categories, Kieren Culkin has won everything leading up to the Oscars and should continue that streak here. While I didn’t love A Complete Unknown, I do believe that Edward Norton was the best part of the film and would likely vote for him over Guy Pearce in The Brutalist.

Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Pérez)
My Pick: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

The other category that Emilia Pérez will still win is a huge case of category fraud and Saldana is clearly the lead of the film. My personal preference would be for Felicity Jones to win for The Brutalist. She doesn’t appear until the halfway point of the film, but once she does she becomes the heart of an otherwise very cold film.

Lead Actor

My Prediction: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
My Pick: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

While there is no competition for my personal pick, Adrien Brody doesn’t have this completely wrapped up as Timothée Chalamet’s SAG win proved that this is not a given. That said, I think Brody will hold off the young actor and win his second statue.

Lead Actress

My Prediction: Demi Moore (The Substance)
My Pick: Mikey Madison (Anora)

Ten years ago, this would be an easy win for Mikey Madison as The Academy has historically awarded young ingenue in this category. Lately, however, more seasoned actresses have been able to win as we as a society have stopped recognizing women actresses for exclusively their youth and beauty. Because of that I believe Moore will hold on to win this year over Madison. And while there is also a chance that Fernanda Torres will come out of nowhere to win for I’m Still Here, I think she’s the least likely of the three to win.

Director

My Prediction: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
My Pick: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

All of the big four awards this year are close, and this might be the closest of the bunch. Often this category goes hand in hand with the next, but I’m not positive that that will be the case this year. Conclave isn’t even nominated in this category, and while Sean Baker and Anora is clearly the biggest competition for this award, I think The Brutalist is a more directorly film and the bigger risks taken by Corbet will end up winning him this award.

Picture

My Prediction: Anora
My Pick: The Brutalist

Its fun going into the night without a clear-cut winner for best picture unlike the previous two years. Conclave, The Brutalist, and Anora all could easily win this award and while The Brutalist is my clear favorite (it ended up at number 2 on my year end list), I’d be pretty happy with any of the three. I am expecting a split between this and director. If Anora does pick up this award, it will become only the fourth film ever to win the Oscar for best picture and the Palme d’Or at Cannes (joining The Lost Weekend, Marty and Parasite.)