Oscar Predictions and Picks 2023

I love the Oscars. For the past six years, I have made it my goal to watch every single film nominated for an Oscar, and while it took me until today to do so, I’ve once again made that goal. This year I’m not posting my non-nominated picks, but just assume I’d have Aftersun listed for all eligible categories. Now, in time for Sunday’s ceremony, here are my predictions and my personal picks for this year’s event.

Short Film, Live Action

My Prediction: Le Pupille
My Pick: The Red Suitcase

It’s hard to predict against a film that has major representation in this category, and Le Pupille’s Disney backing as well as Alice Rohrwacher behind the helm should see it an easy win. If I had a vote though, I’d be going for The Red Suitcase, one of the best tension building exercises of the year.

Short Film, Animated

My Prediction: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse
My Pick: My Year of Dicks

Similar to the Live action category, it’s hard to predict against Idris Elba’s voice acting in The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse even though I found it overly saccharine, but My Year of Dicks was a really fun watch and gets my nod.

Short Film, Documentary

My Prediction: Stranger at the Gate
My Pick: Haulout

Much like the other short categories, I’m assuming the award goes to the film with the biggest name (Stranger at the Gate is executive produced by Malala). My personal favorite however is Haulout, an interesting take on the climate documentary.

Visual Effects

My Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
My Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

I genuinely can’t imagine leaving the theater after seeing Avatar: The Way of Water and not asserting that it has the best visual effects of the year.


My Prediction: Elvis
My Pick: Babylon

While I loved the classic Hollywood cosutmes from the Babylon, betting against Catherine Martin (Elvis) is never a good bet.

Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: Elvis
My Pick: Elvis

The best actor race plays out in makeup and hairstyling as well as both actors find themselves covered in prosthetics during their respective movies. I’m leaning towards an Elvis win as that’s the more beloved film, and the aging of Austin Butler will likely garnish more votes.

Production Design

My Prediction: Babylon
My Pick: Babylon

While Babylon may have been met with lukewarm responses, it seems to be a favorite for the production design award with its recreation of classic Hollywood.


My Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

This race may end up being closer than most people think, but I do believe Top Gun: Maverick will pull out this (and maybe only this) Oscar, even though All Quiet on the Western Front is my favorite and is nipping at its heels.

Original Song

My Prediction: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
My Pick: Naatu Naatu (RRR)

I normally hate picking this category, as I feel that I have a good eye for what makes a film good, but this category is about the quality of the song. That said, this year is an obvious pick as RRR will win the award for it wonderful Naatu Naatu which it’s performance should be a highlight of the evening.

Original Score

My Prediction: Babylon
My Pick: Babylon

I know it’s been losing ground and hasn’t won all the precursors, but I don’t want to live in a world where Justen Hurwitz’s score doesn’t win.


My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once

As we get closer and closer to Oscar night, it really appears that Everything Everywhere All At Once will walk away from the night with quite the haul of gold statues and editing will be the hallmark that it’s happening.


My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

All Quiet on the Western Front is an extremely beautiful film and should run away with the Oscar over Elvis.

Documentary Feature

My Prediction: Navalny
My Pick: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Navalny hits well in the current cultural zeitgeist as the war in Ukraine passes the 1-year mark and the discontent with Russia remains at an all time high. I personally loved Laura Poitras’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but it’s odds of winning are very low given the narrative.

Animated Feature

My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
My Pick: Turning Red

The year that the Disney/ Pixar monopoly on this category will finally come to an end, is the only year that I wish it would win. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is a beautiful dark fairytale that is a deserving winner, but I loved the unabashed period allegory that was Pixar’s Turning Red.

International Film

My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
My Pick: The Quiet Girl

This category is getting to be one of the easiest to predict. The picture that receives a bunch of nominations outside of this category will be the one to win, and this year that goes to All Quiet on the Western Front. And while I did very much enjoy that film. Ireland’s pastoral The Quiet Girl moved me in ways that the war film was incapable of.

Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: Women Talking
My Pick: Women Talking

I really loved Women Talking and was saddened by it’s relative poor performance at this year’s Oscar nominations (though the best picture nod was a welcome surprise). Sarah Polley’s screenplay was the highlight of the film and should result in her winning the Oscar.

Original Screenplay

My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: Everything Everywhere All At Once

With a heavy emphasis on the word “original” Everything Everywhere All At Once will continue its domination of the night by winning a screenplay award.

Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Even though he didn’t win all of the precursors (what was that BAFTAs?), the most obvious award of the night goes to Ke Huy Quan for his wonderful performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

I just don’t see a Marvel film winning an acting award, and I think Bassett should be happy with just the nomination given how much of a long shot it was. With her win at SAG I think Jamie Lee Curtis is in the best position to win this category even though I personally think Kerry Condon was the best part of Banshees and would love to see her win.

Lead Actor

My Prediction: Austin Butler (Elvis)
My Pick: Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

The 3-way race between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser (my personal choice of Paul Mescal was never in contention) finally comes to an end, and while at many times this looked like Fraser’s to lose, I think the general animosity towards The Whale will end up being his downfall, and the much more loved Elvis will see Austin Butler his first win.

Lead Actress

My Prediction: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

The hardest category to pick this year is Lead Actress where Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett are locked in a 2-horse race for the gold. While I and I believe the majority of Oscar voters believe that Blanchett’s performance was superior, Yeoh being a part of the Best Picture winner (spoiler) and having various narratives on her side will I believe push her over the edge to the win, but I won’t be the least surprised to hear Blanchett’s name called.


My Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
My Pick: Todd Field (TÁR)

When Daniels won the DGA, they assured themselves this win. The film is a glorious piece of direction balancing the originality of its script with some spectacular performances. I personally would have voted for TÁR as Todd Field created a deep nuanced feature about the current world, but I don’t begrudge the Daniels their win.


My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All At Once
My Pick: TÁR

Capping off an award heavy night will be Everything Everywhere All At Once winning the night’s final and biggest award. Some people are trying to predict Top Gun: Maverick as a black sheep contender, but with EEAAO winning PGA, SAG, WGA, and DGA it is all but impossible for anything else to win including my personal favorite TÁR which much like director will lose to the Daniels behemoth.