I love the Oscars. For the past seven years, I have made it my goal to watch every single film nominated for an Oscar, and while it took me until today to do so, I’ve once again made that goal. This year has a much more contentious group of categories to go over, even if the above the line ones are pretty obvious. Now, in time for Sunday’s ceremony, here are my predictions and my personal picks for this year’s event.

Short Film, Live Action

My Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
My Pick: Red, White and Blue

Wes Anderson should finally get his first Oscar for this year’s Roald Dahl film, but I personally feel as if it is a bit against the spirit of the reward. The short could have easily been extended 2 more minutes into feature territory and the high level of stars and finances would have served it just as well. Red, White and Blue on the other hand does exactly what I want a short film to do. Tell a convincing story on a budget.

Short Film, Animated

My Prediction: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
My Pick: Ninety-Five Senses

The Oscars is notorious for giving at least one of the short film categories out to the worst film nominated, and I believed this is the category it will happen in this year. War is Over is trite and painfully optimistic and is likely to win.

Short Film, Documentary

My Prediction: The Last Repair Shop
My Pick: The Last Repair Shop

If the academy members watched the films, it is a pretty easy pick for The Last Repair shop which was excellent and by far the best of the bunch, but The ABCs of Book Burning has a cute title about a pertinent topic so I could see that playing spoiler.

Visual Effects

My Prediction: Godzilla Minus One
My Pick: Avatar: Godzilla Minus One

Really close with The Creator, I think Godzilla Minus One was a much more liked film between the two and believe that will raise it to Oscar Gold. The viral click on Oscar nomination morning doesn’t hurt either.

Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: Maestro
My Pick: Maestro

I did not like Maestro, and I don’t believe much of the academy did either. That said it is hard to deny the old age makeup on both Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan were immaculate, and I’ll even forgive the schnozz on Cooper, at least for the night.

Costume

My Prediction: Barbie
My Pick: Barbie

And here starts the biggest paired contention of the night. Between Costume and Production Design Barbie and Poor Things are having a knockdown fight. For costume, I think the iconic Barbie costumes will tip this category in its direction.

Production Design

My Prediction: Poor Things
My Pick: Poor Things

Conversely to costumes I think the perfectly pink Barbie land both deserves to and will just miss out to the surrealist steampunk locations and vehicles that fill the Poor Things screen at every moment.

Sound

My Prediction: Oppenheimer
My Pick: The Zone of Interest

This is the one that kills me. Yes the Bomb explosion scene was a wonderous piece of sound production, and in any normal year I’d gladly accept it winning, but the sound in The Zone of Interest is what makes the film, and is the best sound design I’ve seen in years if not decades.

Original Song

My Prediction: What Was I Made For (Barbie)
My Pick: What Was I Made For (Barbie)

Yes ‘I’m Just Ken’ is fun, but this might be Billie Eilish’s best song and she will become a two time Oscar winner.

Original Score

My Prediction: Oppenheimer
My Pick: Oppenheimer

Joe Hisaishi was robbed of a nomination for The Boy in the Heron which I would have picked if it were an option, but Ludwig Göransson score was well worthy of Oscar gold as well.

Editing

My Prediction: Oppenheimer
My Pick: Anatomy of a Fall

Editing is often seen as a precursor for best picture and as such this is Oppenheimer’s to lose. That said, I think the editing in Anatomy of a Fall was top notch and it is what I’d have voted for.

Cinematography

My Prediction: Oppenheimer
My Pick: Oppenheimer

Another Oscar for the team around Oppenheimer. Expect to see this title a lot going forward.

Documentary Feature

My Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
My Pick: 20 Days in Mariupol

Much like Navalny last year, 20 Days in Mariupol fits the cultural zeitgeist of the day, and it’s an excellently made documentary too.

Animated Feature

My Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
My Pick: The Boy and the Heron

I think if Miyazaki had made a more approachable film, this category would have been his, but The Boy and the Heron was a little too weird to land with the average film goer, and so the also well deserving Spider-Man fill will win its second award in two tries.

International Film

My Prediction: The Zone of Interest
My Pick: The Zone of Interest

With France nominating The Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall, this is a pretty easy win for The Zone of Interest. For what it’s worth, I would vote Zone over Anatomy, but The Taste of Things while not nominated is my favorite of the three.

Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: American Fiction
My Pick: Barbie

I did not enjoy American Fiction and personally believe its screenplay to be pretty confused, but it appears to be the runaway favorite. I think Barbie should have been in original screenplay, but regardless I think it deserves the win here.

Original Screenplay

My Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
My Pick: Past Lives

With Barbie languishing in the harder category this year, Anatomy of a Fall should have the support to win this over The Holdovers, but I’d personally give it to my favorite film of 2023, Past Lives.

Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
My Pick: Robert Di Nero (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Looks to be a pretty easy win for Robert Downey Jr., but I think the Di Nero performance in Killers of the Flower Moon is getting unfairly overlooked.

Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
My Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

The easiest prediction of the night is that Da’Vine Joy Randolph will walk away with an Oscar. Her performance in The Holdovers is what made that movie (with all respect to Paul Giamatti) and I’m excited to hear her speech as she accepts her Oscar.

Lead Actor

My Prediction: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
My Pick: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

While there is a chance that Paul Giamatti plays upset and stops the Oppenheimer sweep, it is Cillian Murphy’s time to win. He was miraculous as the cold titular character and is most likely to walk up to the stage Sunday night.

Lead Actress

My Prediction: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
My Pick: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

The hardest of the above the line categories to predict, I’m going with my favorite (nominated) performance of the year, Lily Gladstone, the nod over Emma Stone, but could see it going either way. There’s even the off chance that Sandra Hüller could play upset. Any of the three would be more than worthy, but I hope and think Gladstone will come out ahead.

Director

My Prediction: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
My Pick: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Oppenheimer is an unstoppable force and will easily get Christopher Nolan his first Oscar, and while I didn’t love Oppenheimer as much as most I do get that it’s an impressive feat of direction. My personal pick though would be Glazer for The Zone of Interest which was all direction (and sound).

Picture

My Prediction: Oppenheimer
My Pick: Past Lives

Much like Everything Everywhere All At Once last year, Oppenheimer is likely to cap off a night of winning with taking home the big prize. I still think the last act of the film is superfluous, but where the film is great it’s really great. If it were up to me though, the emotional impact of Past Lives in its simplicity is the best film of the year and deserves to win this award even though it doesn’t have a chance.